MARCH MADNESS
Welcome back Greyhounds fans! It has been a while since my last post, I apologize as I have been super busy. As the calendar moved into March, the playoffs sit on the horizon. The Greyhounds have 8 games remaining before the start of the post-season. They trail the London Knights, who sit 2nd in the Western Conference by 6 points and my personal favored matchup for the Greyhounds 2nd Round playoff opponent. In this post, I will discuss my views on the team going into the upcoming playoffs.
PLAYOFF PRESSURE
The Western Conference is currently a seesaw battle for playoff seeding. Here are the current standings as of March 7th:
With most teams having 7 or 8 games remaining, there is not much sense in making a prediction of the Greyhounds Round 1 playoff opponent. The top 4 and bottom 4 groups are both solidified, but all four teams in each group are still lobbying for seeding. In my opinion, going into the playoffs, the best chance for Greyhound success sees them avoiding Saginaw until the 3rd Round. So, a position where Saginaw and the Soo finish 1st/3rd or 1st/2nd is best case. Either way, a London or Kitchener 2nd round matchup is not a guaranteed series win either. I just believe a series win against Saginaw would take the full 7 games, and a 7-game 2nd round is very difficult to battle back from, energy wise. However, in my most popular opinion, the opponent is irrelevant depending on the Greyhounds own game. Any opponent has the capability to beat them if they are not playing to high standards, which has been demonstrated by the second half of their season.
FORMULA FOR SUCCESS
I don’t think it is a stretch to say that The Greyhounds are the fastest team in OHL. Even against London and Kitchener, they have proven themselves to have a leg up on the competition when playing their game. Saginaw is a very strong and physical defensive team, which will give the Greyhounds problems in a hypothetical playoff matchup. From this point on, it is imperative that the Greyhounds play to their strengths. They need to beat their opponents using speed and skill. (I feel like we’ve said this before?? Lol…). Their ability to overwhelm the opponent as well as capitalizing on offensive scoring chances needs to be a huge part of their playoff game for them to find any success. Below are a few key points I notice on a game-to-game basis that helps them sink or swim: (keep in mind that I am in no way a professional analyst or claim to know everything. We all see the game differently!)
- OFFENSIVE ZONE ENTRIES:
o Something I focus on is their offensive neutral zone play. The Greyhounds have two primary ways of entering the zone:
1) One player receiving a regroup pass, using speed and entering the zone while the other players flood the zone OR
2) A breakout pass to a forward at the offensive blue line.
o The problem with the Option #2, is a solid defensive team like Saginaw, sets up 4 defenders at their blueline, leading to a high rate of turnovers or dumping the puck. In my opinion, the Greyhounds need to adjust their zone entries based on the defensive scheme and habits of their opponents to stay dangerous offensively and play to their strengths.
- PUT THE POWER IN POWERPLAY
o Sometimes the Greyhounds’ powerplay looks like a penalty kill. At other times it can easily win them the hockey game. They seem to have difficulty with their man advantage zone entries. Once the puck is cleared, both powerplay lines have difficulty re-entering the zone with control. The Greyhounds’ PP is currently 7th in the league with a record of 22.4%. Not bad! But not great either. Having a consistent powerplay is key to pulling out victories in the playoffs. The last home game versus Sarnia the Hounds were 3 for 4 on the power play. Which is very positive!
- BATTLE OF THE BOTTOM 4 FORWARDS:
o There are 4 forwards who find themselves in and out of the lineup when everyone is healthy: Justin Fantino, Justin Dezeote, Christopher Brown, and Tate Vader. Vader is the solidified 14th option and will only make it into a playoff game if there are multiple injuries. That means, the difficulty in navigating the three other players will be essential in providing the key depth options in the playoffs. In all honesty, completely understanding that Christopher Brown is a former first-round pick, right now he does not make it in my playoff lineup. It’s no surprise he has been very underwhelming as a former first-rounder, and the only way to find his game is to play him. However, in this playoff race, I would much rather see the ice time be given to Dezeote and Fantino. They are 19, have the experience and are much deserving of it. Dezeote's speed and defensive capabilities are a huge boost. Fantino’s physicality would be missed if he were a scratch.
- STAY VIGILANT VIRGILIO
o As the 5th (and possible 4th barring an injury), Matthew Virgilio has had a very strong second half. He plays the game like an 19-year-old, for being only 17. While I would feel much more at ease if Raftis had acquired an additional veteran shut down defenceman at the deadline, the future of the Greyhounds’ blueline looks so bright with Evans, Brodie M-B and Virgilio. Hopefully Virgilio, along with Carlisle and the others can continue to step it up, play some big minutes and help clear the front of the net for Charlie Schenkel.
With only 8 games remaining, this ride is coming to an end. What a season it has been! I am hopeful for the playoffs, but it all comes down to their ability to execute. This team continues to show signs of greatness, but struggle with consistency. They need to find it fast because the window is most definitely closing fast. Cheers to hoping we’ll have some things to celebrate in the near future!