With the regular season in the books and the Greyhounds 1st round opponent finalized, all focus can now shift towards the Guelph Storm. To begin, it is important to note that in no way shape or form is Guelph an easy first round opponent. I will attempt to cover some keys to the game, for the Greyhounds to be successful in Round 1 and talk a little bit about the opponent.
Here is a breakdown of head-to-head statistics from the Greyhounds perspective throughout the year:
vs. Guelph
Record: 3-0-0-1
PP: 4 for 14 (28.6%)
PK: 12 for 14 (85.7%)
GF-GA: 14-8
SF-SA: 116-109
SV %: 0.940
All in all, the Greyhounds played the Storm very well throughout the regular season. Whatever formula they used, it’s imperative for them to continue using it. On the other hand, the playoffs are a different animal, and it is important not to look past Guelph or take them lightly.
OPPONENT: GUELPH STORM
The Guelph Storm finished 6th in the Western Conference with a 33-28-6-1 record. They have 5 NHL draft picks on their roster, 3 of which are defensemen: Jake Karabela, Vilmer Alriksson, Cam Allen, Michael Buchinger and Chandler Romeo. Their leading scorer is sophomore forward Jett Luchanko, he has an impressive 74 points in 68 games. Guelph has five 20+ goal scorers and their starting goalie, Brayden Gillespie, is 18 years old and sports a .898 save percentage over 49 games played. They finished 13th in powerplay, 11th in penalty kill, 7th least in goals against and 16th in goals for, with only 210. Last among all qualified playoff teams. They have been playing great hockey as of late, with a 6-3-1-0 record in their last 10 games. They finished their season with a 3-0 loss to London on Sunday. I have only observed Guelph twice (once in SSM and once in Guelph), but based on my analysis they are a big, strong defensive focused team that is built to cause frustration on opposing teams’ offences.
KEYS FOR THE HOUNDS
1. Score early and plenty!
Based on Guelph’s structure, it is essential for the Greyhounds to get on the scoreboard quickly. They must use their speed and skill to their advantage to get the jump on the Storm, leaving no time for Guelph to hang around and put pressure on Schenkel and the defense. Since Guelph’s offensive output is usually low, scoring early and often only increases the chance of victory for the Hounds.
2. Fresh start for Schenkel.
The season save percentage and GAA for the #1 goalie was disappointing, no doubt. An .883 save % and 3.10 GAA is a tough look. Charlie bailed his teammates out many more times than they bailed him out all season. There’s no soft way of putting it, he needs to be on his game. Given Landon Miller’s struggles as of late, there is little room for error. There is no superman to come in and save him from the crease. On the other hand, I am looking forward to the post-season for Charlie, because it’s a clean slate! All his statistics return to 0, and it is an opportunity for him to get in a groove and build some confidence. If Schenkel is locked in, the Greyhounds become very dangerous to any team they face.\
3. "Veteran presence" - Shoresy
Between last year and the COVID year, anybody under the age of 19 does NOT have any playoff experience. As well as anybody home grown* (developed by the Hounds), has only the one year of playoff experience, (which was the Kerins/Kartye/O’Rourke years). This makes the additions of Beck, Frasca and Hayes HUGE, especially in this first round. It is going to be an adjustment for everyone. That group of veteran players need to lead by example and may need to carry the offence/pace at first to let the less experienced players get their legs under them.
PREDICTIONS
I’m not the type of person to make solid predictions and be okay with it… (I’m usually way off and I hate feeling like I jinx everybody, call it a superstition I guess!). I’m also not in the mood to look ahead to Round 2, especially this year. Obviously, all roads ahead lead to a 2nd round matchup against Saginaw… So instead of giving a straight prediction, this is just my two cents. Realistically, the Greyhounds should win this series. But Guelph could easily pull off an upset if they play strong and capatilize on mistakes. The Hounds have the skill and ability to win the series in 5 games. The inconsistency in their game makes this result far from certain. Furthermore, the longer the series against Guelph lasts, the more difficult the Saginaw matchup becomes in Round 2. To have a shot at defeating Saginaw in Round 2, they need a quick victory in Round 1. I don’t know peeps… It is exciting. One thing is for certain:
Only time will tell. I feel like they could go all the way. But I also feel like they could be out before April gets 4 days old… Only time will tell. One period at a time, one shift at a time, one game at a time...
Until next time! Enjoy the ride.